Celtics-Knicks: 4 things to watch in massive Game 6

The Eastern Conference semifinals series between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks has been kind of crazy.

The Celtics have led all five games by at least 14 points and have outscored the Knicks by 35 points in the series. But they blew big leads in Games 1, 2 and 4 and have scored an incredibly anemic 12 points on 24 clutch possessions. If a few possessions here and there go their way, they very would could have swept this series.

They lost Jayson Tatum at the end of Game 4, but then blew out the Knicks in Game 5, getting huge performances from Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Luke Kornet.

That sets up a huge Game 6 at Madison Square Garden on Friday (8 ET, ESPN).

Here are some notes, numbers and film as the Knicks try again to knock out the champs.

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1. The Celtics’ offense has been on fire

After scoring less than a point per possession over the first two games in this series, the Celtics have scored 129.6 per 100 over the last three. That’s the Knicks’ worst three-game stretch of defense this season.

Good (and bad defense) starts in transition, and that’s been a big difference over the last three games. After scoring just 30 points on 40 transition possessions (0.75 per) through the first two games, the Celtics have scored 80 on 52 transition possessions (1.54 per) over the last three, according to Synergy tracking …

Celtics’ transition offense, conference semis

Diff. = BOS transition points – NYK transition points
via Synergy tracking

Almost half (15) of the Celtics’ 31 transition points in Game 5 were either White 3-pointers or a foul on a White 3-point attempt, and they can’t expect White to shoot so well going forward.

But consistently pushing in transition can do two good things for the Celtics’ offense, aside from just getting easy buckets …

A) It can spark ball movement against a defense that isn’t quite set …

B) It can give them mismatches, like Al Horford against Jalen Brunson after a switch on the other end of the floor …

With Brown guarding Brunson when the Knicks have the ball, that’s a mismatch that the Celtics could continue to get on offense if they don’t give New York time to switch up.

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2. Can the Knicks put together another big offensive game?

Though the Celtics’ offense has been super efficient for three straight games, the Knicks won Game 4 because their offense had its best game of the series (121 points on 94 possessions) by a huge margin. In the other four games in this series, New York has scored just 104 per 100.

In Game 5, Josh Hart shot 5-for-9 from 3-point range and Mitchell Robinson went 6-for-6 from the free throw line, and the Knicks still lost by 25.

The offensive struggles start with the Knicks’ starting lineup, which has scored just 100.9 per 100 in its 107 minutes in this series. Brunson is carrying a heavy load and Hart has shot 10-for-26 (38%) from 3-point range, though he could be a little quicker to shoot when the Celtics leave him open.

The Knicks’ other three starters have combined for an effective field goal percentage of just 46.7%. Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns are a combined 8-for-37 (22%) from 3-point range, while OG Anunoby is just 10-for-31 (32%) inside the arc. Bridges (zero) and Anunoby (eight) have combined for just eight free throw attempts over the five games.

Getting those guys open and in-rhythm looks has been difficult because the Celtics aren’t sending multiple defenders at Brunson. They’re so good defensively because they have multiple defenders who can guard him one-on-one.

They have run doubles when Brunson has been isolated against Luke Kornet, Kristaps Porziņģis or Payton Pritchard, but the Celtics’ willingness to leave Hart open in those situations allows them to stay attached to the other three Knicks on the floor.

There was a possession early in the third quarter of Game 5 where Kornet got switched onto Brunson. Brown came back with a double-team, leaving Hart open for a second. But Kornet scrambled back quickly, erasing the Knicks’ advantage …

When Bridges has had two big fourth quarters in this series, the offense has run through him. But for the most part, the ball has been in the hands of Brunson, who leads this round in time of possession (10.0 minutes per game) by a healthy margin.

Brunson certainly can produce a huge game on Friday, but the Knicks probably need more from their wings to finish this series.

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3. Celtics been better with one big

When Porziņģis was unable to start the second half on Wednesday, the Celtics replaced him with Kornet. That was a great move and Kornet had the game of his life, tallying 10 points, nine rebounds and seven blocks.

But the Celtics were better when Kornet was the lone big on the floor than when he played alongside Horford, who picked up his fourth foul less than two minutes into that third quarter.

For the series, the Celtics have been much better with just one of their three centers on the floor (plus-16.4 points per 100 possessions) than they’ve been with two (minus-7.9 per 100). A smaller lineup and more guards give them more playmaking, and the offense has been better with just one big. But the bigger difference has been on defense …

Celtics with 1 or 2 bigs on the floor, conference semis

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

A big part of the two-big problem has just been Porziņģis’ issues with his illness. Of those 80 two-big minutes, 48 of them have been Porziņģis playing alongside either Horford or Kornet, and the Celtics have been outscored by 15.4 points per 100 possessions in those 48 minutes.

The Horford-Kornet combo has been a positive (plus-3.7 per 100), and we’ll surely see more of it in Game 6. But we could also see a lot more of the Celtics playing smaller, with just one big man on the floor. And if Porziņģis (not currently on the injury report) is ineffective or unable to play, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see a fourth big (Neemias Queta) in the rotation.

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4. Can Towns play big against Celtics’ guards?

If the Celtics do play smaller, it’ll be more likely that Towns will be defended by a guard (the Celtics have been consistent about putting their centers on Hart). With Tatum out in Game 5, Towns’ primary defender was Jrue Holiday.

The Knicks didn’t take advantage of that matchup until midway through the fourth quarter, when they were down by more than 20 points. Towns scored on three straight one-on-one possessions against Holiday, getting a driving layup, a short jump hook and a pair of free throws.

Then the Celtics sent a double-team and he turned the ball over …

The Knicks could certainly explore that matchup more in Game 6. If the Celtics double, it will surely be Hart that’s left open. But if Towns gets off the ball and the Knicks move it quickly, driving lanes could open up.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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